4月29日，MNI-NEWS（國際市場新聞社）采訪多位國內(nèi)行業(yè)研究員，并發(fā)表文章：《China To Restrict, Not End, Support For LGFVs》（“中國政府將對地方融資平臺從嚴支持”全文附在文末）。
其中，北京明樹數(shù)據(jù)科技有限公司（以下簡稱“明樹數(shù)據(jù)”）高級研究員楊曉懌，接受采訪并指出：“隨著金融監(jiān)管部門嚴格控制債券發(fā)行，并對融資租賃等非標融資渠道加強監(jiān)管，城投平臺的現(xiàn)金流出現(xiàn)明顯壓力。”“不過在公開市場發(fā)生債券違約的可能性不大，尤其是經(jīng)發(fā)改委審批，為公共福利項目融資發(fā)行的企業(yè)債。”她補充道。同時，此報道也在彭博新聞社海外平臺發(fā)布。
MNI-Market News是一家專注于國際資本市場的金融新聞機構(gòu)。它是為全球外匯和固定收益市場提供實時新聞和分析的提供商。MNI由經(jīng)濟學家羅伯特·瓊斯（Robert Jones）于1983年創(chuàng)立，旨在向其第一家國際貨幣市場服務公司（MMS（Money Market Services）International）提供可靠的消息。建立三十多年以來，MNI在美洲、亞洲和歐洲有12個辦事處，新聞工作者團隊的素質(zhì)和經(jīng)驗使其在行業(yè)新聞機構(gòu)中脫穎而出。
官網(wǎng)地址：https://marketnews.com/
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這并不是明樹數(shù)據(jù)團隊第一次接受MNI采訪，今年3月22日，MNI采訪高級研究員楊曉懌并發(fā)表相關(guān)報道：《MNI Exclusive: China to increase refinanced bonds, debt swaps》（中國將增加對再融資債券和置換債券的支持力度）。
年初以來，明樹數(shù)據(jù)團隊多次現(xiàn)身國外行業(yè)主流媒體。明樹數(shù)據(jù)CEO肖光睿在2月接受Inframation采訪，在報道中介紹了明樹團隊編寫的《2020 中國PPP市場年報》。
Inframation集團成立于2002年，旨在讓基礎設施投資領域工作者了解即將上市的交易和項目采購動態(tài)，是全球基礎設施領域成功的新聞媒體平臺之一。
官網(wǎng)：https://www.inframationgroup.com/
全文（中英）
China To Restrict, Not End, Support For LGFVs
中國政府將對地方融資平臺從嚴支持
China will continue to help local government financing vehicles through short-term liquidity crunches despite an official statement seemingly withdrawing implicit guarantees for their debt as any dent in the bonds' safety record could have major ramifications for the regional economy, policy advisors told MNI.
據(jù)政策顧問向MNI表示，政府將繼續(xù)幫助地方融資平臺度過短期流動性緊缺的難關(guān)。盡管近期官方文件意在逐步打破剛性兌付，但一旦城投公募債券違約，將對地方經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展帶來巨大影響。
The State Council's recent document urging LGFVs to "implement bankruptcy proceedings or liquidation in accordance with the law if they lose their ability to pay" has raised concerns that Beijing's growing tolerance for defaults by state-owned enterprises is starting to extend to these funding platforms as it cracks down on leverage, including implicit debt.
國務院近期發(fā)布了《關(guān)于進一步深化預算管理制度改革的意見》，其中提到“對失去清償能力的地方融資平臺公司要依法實施破產(chǎn)重整或清算”。這份文件引發(fā)了市場關(guān)注，在中央多次提及降低政府杠桿率、化解隱形債務風險的背景下，市場人士擔心中央政府對國有企業(yè)債務違約的容忍度有所提升，且將開始延伸至融資平臺。
However, advisors believe LGFVs will continue to receive short-term support in indirect ways from regional governments. A major default in their bonds, which have thus far had occasional repayment problems and rank next only to those of the local authority in the domestic credit hierarchy, will shake faith in the financing system, they said.
然而，顧問們認為，短期內(nèi)，融資平臺仍將繼續(xù)得到地方政府的間接支持，考慮到平臺于地方信用金字塔的排位僅次于地方政府，其債務違約將動搖市場對區(qū)域金融系統(tǒng)的信心。截至目前，城投債不時出現(xiàn)技術(shù)性違約，但并未發(fā)生實質(zhì)性違約。
Local governments "may still help LGFVs through asset injections to improve their balance sheet, or more traditionally by offering subsidies and coordinating negotiations with creditors to extend debt repayments as through installments," said Zhang Yiqun, the director of a fiscal studies institute affiliated with Jilin province's finance department.
吉林省財政科學研究所所長張依群表示，“地方政府或繼續(xù)為融資平臺提供幫助，可能通過向平臺注入資產(chǎn)以改善其資產(chǎn)負債表，而更傳統(tǒng)的做法是提供補貼；協(xié)調(diào)平臺與債權(quán)人進行談判，尋求以分期的方式延期償還債務。”
DEFAULTS UNLIKELY
違約可能性不大
Besides funding many infrastructure projects, LGFVs have also taken on low or even non-profit ventures on behalf of the government and their debt has ballooned while fiscal revenues are shrinking.
除了為當?shù)鼗椖刻峁┤谫Y以外，平臺還為地方政府承擔了一些低收益甚至非盈利的公益性項目。近年來平臺的負債規(guī)模逐步攀升，而地方財政收入?yún)s呈現(xiàn)萎縮之勢。
The Yunnan provincial government recently agreed to help Yunnan Investment Group find a buyer for its stake in a subsidiary as the LGFV faced a liquidity crunch and struggled to repay debt.
近來，云南省城投平臺云投集團面臨短期流動性壓力，償債困難。為此云南省國資委將幫助云投集團尋找買家，收購其下屬企業(yè)的股權(quán)。
More highly rated prefecture-level LGFVs are expected to face such problems. "There is obvious pressure on their cash flow as the financial regulator has strict controls on debt issuance as well as on other non-standard means such as financial leasing." said Yang Xiaoyi, researcher at BRI Data, an investment advisory firm to local governments. Still, defaults in the public debt market are unlikely, especially with issues approved by the National Development and Reform Commission to fund public welfare projects, said Yang.
一些高評級的地級市大平臺可能也將面臨類似的流動性問題。明樹數(shù)據(jù)研究員楊曉懌表示，“隨著金融監(jiān)管部門嚴格控制債券發(fā)行，并對融資租賃等非標融資渠道加強監(jiān)管，城投平臺的現(xiàn)金流出現(xiàn)明顯壓力。不過在公開市場發(fā)生債券違約的可能性不大，尤其是經(jīng)發(fā)改委審批，為公共福利項目融資發(fā)行的企業(yè)債。”
The total interest-bearing debt of LGFVs was about CNY49 trillion by end-2020, accounting for 48% of GDP, according to the National Institution for Finance & Development. Excluding debt raised for their own commercial activities such as real estate development, local government implicit debt generated by LGFVs accounted for about 30% of GDP, MNI recently reported. Some CNY2.7 trillion of LGFV debt matures this year, according to Yang.
據(jù)國家金融與發(fā)展實驗室提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2020年末，融資平臺的全部有息債務規(guī)模約為49萬億元，占GDP的48%。MNI在近期報道中指出，剔除其為房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)等商業(yè)行為所舉借的債務，融資平臺所實際形成的地方政府隱性債務約占GDP的30%左右。楊曉懌表示，今年將有約2.7萬億元的城投債到期。
RESPONSIBILITY
償債責任
Repayment issues are clouded by the difficulty in pinpointing responsibility, advisors said. While local governments take on debt related to projects without any revenue, they tend to exclude that generated by the LGFV's operations, said a researcher with a government-backed think tank who asked for anonymity.
顧問們表示，償還責任難以厘清也是化解債務過程中的一大困擾。一位要求匿名的政府智庫研究人員表示，地方已將一些完全沒有收益的公益性項目所產(chǎn)生的負債轉(zhuǎn)化為政府債務，同時與融資平臺在其商業(yè)運營中產(chǎn)生的負債做切割。
Zhang said LGFVs are set to consolidate through mergers. Currently, each of the 2,800 or so counties nationwide has three LGFVs on average. In some developed provinces, infrastructure requirements are minimal and cannot support that many LGFVs, Yang said, suggesting that contrary to general perception, associated risks may be higher in developed provinces such as Jiangsu. But the government may continue to support LGFVs in some less-developed areas, said Yang.
張依群表示，各地融資平臺整合升級是大勢所趨。目前，全國2800多個縣，平均每個縣就有3家融資平臺。楊曉懌稱，在一些經(jīng)濟發(fā)達省份，基建需求已相對飽和，難以支持數(shù)量繁多的融資平臺繼續(xù)存續(xù)。和普遍看法相悖，楊曉懌認為像江蘇這樣的經(jīng)濟發(fā)達省份或更易看到城投風險的暴露，而在一些欠發(fā)達地區(qū)，地方政府將繼續(xù)支持融資平臺以滿足當?shù)鼗ㄍ顿Y的需求。
Another source at a government-backed think tank suggested LGFVs identify and concentrate on high-quality assets and let shell platforms go bankrupt to minimise bond market shocks.
另一位政府智庫的消息人士建議，融資平臺可進行資產(chǎn)剝離，集中優(yōu)質(zhì)資產(chǎn)，讓空殼平臺破產(chǎn)，把對債券市場的沖擊降至最低。
